Most weather products tell you the forecast. Forecast Fork tells you whether to trust it — how much the ensembles disagree, which competing scenarios are still unresolved, and how likely the forecast is to change in the next few cycles. Publicly, and continuously verified.
See it live → Peril watchA forecast can be confident — every model and member converging on one outcome — or forked: split into distinct scenarios the atmosphere hasn't chosen between yet. The second kind busts. Forecast Fork is the probability that materially distinct scenarios remain unresolved — and, uniquely, that the forecast itself is about to move.
A multi-model ensemble blend (full-physics + AI) with per-region, per-lead skill weighting and honest, recalibrated probabilities.
One number per region & lead: how forked the forecast is — the probability it stays unresolved or revises.
The competing weather patterns tracked cycle to cycle — when a scenario appears, gains support, splits, or wins.
How the distribution is moving between cycles: drift, spread acceleration, cluster-mass velocity, reversals.
A validated, reliability-checked estimate of how much to trust the current forecast — not just its central value.
An immutable, provenance-stamped record of every forecast as it was issued, linked to what actually happened.
Forecast Fork is the transparent, auditable layer of Weather Trader — a prediction market for the atmosphere. The maps and verification are free and public; the goal is for "the Forecast Fork is high" to become how people say a forecast is unsettled.